Europe’s hottest year signals deepening climate crisis

The record-breaking heat in 2024 followed a year of exceptionally high global average temperatures in 2023. 2024 marked the first time that the global annual average temperature exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, with the five-year running average currently above 1.3°C. Europe continues to heat more rapidly than the global average, with temperatures during the past five years averaging around 2.4°C above pre-industrial levels.

Ocean temperatures mirrored the extremes on land, influenced in part by the lingering effects of El Niño, which peaked in late 2023. Many ocean basins recorded higher-than-average or record-breaking sea surface temperatures, with the Mediterranean experiencing its warmest year on record at 21.5°C average, 0.3°C above the previous record. Combined with extreme heat on land, globally these hotter ocean temperatures contributed to accelerated ice loss from glaciers and ice sheets, pushing global sea levels to their highest point in the modern record.

“Climate change indicators such as ocean heat and acidification, sea level rise, and sea ice loss are alarming and have major implications for every single continent – including Europe,” said Professor Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization. “Every fraction of a degree matters – in terms of risks to our economies, disruptions to our societies, damage to our ecosystems, and threats to our children and grandchildren.”

Analysis by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that even keeping the global temperature rise to 1.5°C – the most ambitious target of the Paris Agreement – could result in 30,000 excess deaths per year from extreme heat. In a scenario in which the global temperature rise is 3°C, this number is predicted to be three times higher. The World Health Organization estimates that heat-related mortality has already increased more than 30% in the past two decades.

Southeast Europe is projected to face the highest and fastest-rising heat impacts anywhere on the continent. In 2024 the region experienced its longest and second-most severe heatwave on record, particularly affecting countries such as the Balkans, Bulgaria, Greece, Italy, and Türkiye.

The report also highlights the sharp contrasts in weather impacts across Europe in 2024. Eastern regions experienced prolonged heat and drought, while many parts of Central and Western Europe faced wetter, cloudier conditions – with storms and flash floods, including in autumn 2024 which saw devastating flooding in Spain and widespread impacts of Storm Boris in Central Europe. Nearly a third of the European river network exceeded high flood thresholds during the year.

“It’s estimated that at least 335 lives were lost in Europe last year due to storms and flooding, with over 400,000 people affected, and a further 42,000 impacted by wildfires,” said Dr Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. “These extreme events led to an estimated €18 billion of damages – 85% of which was attributed to flooding.

“We know from the physics of the Earth system that the sooner we reach net zero and stop emitting new sources of greenhouse gases, the sooner our climate will stabilise. What we don’t know is when that stabilisation will occur, we don’t know whether any tipping points in the climate system will have occurred before we stabilise the climate, and we don’t know the implications for extreme events once we have a more stable climate,” Dr Burgess added. “What we do know – and what has been consistently clear in all of the IPCC reports – is that as long as emissions continue to rise, extreme events will become more frequent and more intense.”

The report also underscored the need for both mitigation and adaptation measures to reduce the impacts of climate change. One positive was that renewable energy production in Europe rose to a record 45% – due to an increase in generative capacity from previous years, despite cloudier than average conditions in Western Europe.

“The ESOTC report is compiled by combining the best available information from satellite, in situ ground-based data, and physical knowledge of the Earth system, where we can get the most accurate picture of what the planet is like today,” said Dr Florence Rabier, Director-General of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

“Our findings tell us that Europe is the fastest-warming continent, and it has just experienced its warmest year on record. When averaged over five years, temperatures in Europe are now at least 2.4°C above pre-industrial time. It’s also clear that the Arctic is one of the fastest growing regions on Earth – for instance Svalbard (specifically on Spitsbergen island) in Norway has reached a record high temperature of more than 2.5°C above average. This illustrates that climate change is not just a global average temperature number – it really has impacts at the local and regional scale.

“The heat has an effect on human health,” Dr Rabier added. “Impacts such as heat stress depend not only on temperature, but also other parameters like wind and humidity – and what we see is that heat stress continues to increase across Europe. There are many other climate indicators that go well beyond temperature alone. This science and data highlight the urgent need to build greater resilience and preparedness.”

Authors

Adam Gristwood and Rob Roebeling